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Friday, September 28, 2018

Q3 2018 Dividends















Contributors Q3 2018 Dividends:

Frasers Logistic Trust - $1,717
Singtel - $3,852
Cache Log - $193
Starhill Global - $218
AIMS AMP - $2,024
Unnamed Co - $310

Total dividends received for Q3: $8,315

This is a y-o-y improvement of 29.4% over Q3 2017, which saw a total contribution of S$6,424.
The main reason appears to be due to my increased holdings in Singtel compared to the portfolio last year.

The year to date dividends received is $30,581, which is around 68% of the full year forecast of $45k.

At this time, the manager see no issues in outperforming the conservative forecast by the end of the financial year.

The challenge now is to properly deploy the war chest in time to meet next year's forecast target of  $80k in total dividends (based on my fuck-you-money spreadsheet).


Onward to FI!!!

2018 Q3 Portfolio Update

Breakdown as follows:



Shares held  Current share price value 
AIMS AMP  81000 1.42 115020
Ascendas Htrust 235000 0.82 192700
Cache log 13600 0.74 10064
CRCT 35000 1.44 50400
Ezion 19500 0.074 1443
First Reit 40000 1.24 49600
Frasers Log 189700 1.07 202979
KepCorp 5000 7 35000
Sasseur REIT 40000 0.72 28800
Singtel 42000 3.23 135660
Starhill Global Reit 20000 0.695 13900
Unnamed7611 6 45666
Warchest 260632.4
TOTAL $1,141,864.4


The total portfolio value has exceeded 1.1M, which was my target set in the initial part of the year. However, it should be noted that around $45k of the portfolio are shares of the company I work for. These shares are escrowed and cannot be sold until 2020 (earliest). While these shares would earn dividends, they do not constitute a liquid portion of my portfolio.

I am still holding on to too much cash for my liking. Ideally, I would like to deploy most of it before Christmas. But finding good value in today's market is horrendously difficult.

My portfolio is now 80% REITS/trusts and 20% non-REITs. The non-REIT components are mainly composed of Singtel, Keppel Corp and the escrowed employee shares. I am happy with a 80-20 distribution for now.

Happy to say that my FI plans appear right on schedule.  Looking forward to December, wherein the combined Dividends from Frasers, AIMs, Ascendas and First REIT should make for a Merry Merry Xmas. Ho Ho Ho.






Tuesday, September 25, 2018

ThaiBev - Beery good results

First victory recorded in September!

Thai Bev was purely an impulse purchase due to the steep discount offered by Mr Market.

Sentiments appear to be turning for Thai Bev and the share traded up to $0.695 on 24 September. I gladly accepted the market's offer to take the shares off my hand and cashed out entirely.

I debated briefly whether to keep some and "let profits run".  I decided against it eventually because I do not know enough of Thai Bev's business and fundamentals to retain the stock long term.  In the money is in the money.


All in all, a decent 9.58 % return in 2 weeks.  Well at least it covers the rent and then some. 




I did retain Kep Corp, which has now rallied to cross the 7.15 mark. It appears Kep Corp may be looking to divest its stake in M1 through KT&T.  Kepland also secured a new land parcel in Nanjing.

Blue chips will always be blue chips. You might not get them at the lowest. But a dollar cost averaging strategy for SG blue chips apppear to work  well.  When time permits, I would be very interested to back-test a DCA strategy for SG blue chips over five and ten year periods and see if my hypothesis checks out. 

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Doing Battle in the Great Singapore Sale


Le long Le long, screams the SGX.

Many have come to browse its wares; some cautious and wary. Others, egged on by a kiasu mentality, gobble up every single deal that appears vaguely attractive.

The STI has been on a punishing slide since May 2018, retreating from a high of 3615.28 (2 May 2018) to 3105.66 (today, 12 Sep 2018); nearly a 14% retreat. 

We are approaching the psychological resistance point of 3000 points.

The last time the STI sank below 3000 points was Oct 2015 and that rut lasted until Jan 2017 (a short rut by historical standards). 

It certainly seems like we are now heading back to that "not good, but not exactly bad" zone.

Dealing with the ebbs and flows of Mr Market is like fighting a protracted battle. Battles are won and lost over the short term but the objective, of course, is to win the war.

The initial wave of soldiers i sent to the front have unfortunately all perished.  Fallen valiantly in the battlegrounds of Singtel, Keppel and First Reit.

 

no. of shares entry value current price change
Singtel 6000 3.15 18900 3.12 -0.95%
Keppel 2000 6.8 13600 6.42 -5.59%
First Reit 20000 1.29 25800 1.25 -3.10%
TOTAL

58300
-2.98%















 
Not to be cowed by the resistance of Mr Market, I sent in a second wave of troops on 5 Sep, this time twice the size of the initial battalion, targeting Thai Bev, Sasseur REIT and CapitaR China Trust.  It appears that the second wave of reinforcements have also run into difficult entanglements.



no. of shares entry value current price change
ThaiBev 40000 0.63 25200 0.625 -0.79%
Sasseur 40000 0.73 29200 0.715 -2.05%
CRCT 35000 1.44 50400 1.43 -0.69%
TOTAL

104800
-1.10%























It is absolutely necessary to have some depth when planning battle strategy. Although the reserves remain healthy, I shall bide my time and make further observations before sending a third wave of reinforcements.

In other words, 按兵不动. 


Meanwhile, one must learn to stay comfortable vested.  

CRCT and Sasseur are a play on the Chinese counters, which appear to have been unduly punished by investor pessimism brought on by Trump's trade war.  

CRCT is an old hand in mall management and may be expected to weather this short term pull-back. I believe the burgeoning middle class in China would continue to drive consumerism. At 1.44, the yield of CRCT is close to 7%. It's gearing is extremely healthy at 32% and it is currently priced at a discount to NAV of 0.87 (NAV per share being reported as 1.66). I am happy with a 7% yield while waiting for the bout of pessimism to pass.  

Sasseur REIT is admittedly more of a punt. It is a relatively small reit with market cap of less than 1B and its portfolio only comprises a miserable 4 malls, with one of its malls in Chong Qing contributing up to >70% of revenue.  This was a pure numbers play. I liked the >8% yield at current price, a low gearing at 33% and a discount to its NAV of 0.81.  I don't like its asset concentration and its relatively short land leases.  I will try to exit this counter if a selling opportunity presents itself.

As for Thai Bev, there is nothing much to say except that I feel at 0.63 there is a reasonable margin of safety for entry.  

My dividends for the rest of the year should be significantly boosted by recent purchases and I look forward to tabulating them for Q3 by the end of Sep.