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Showing posts from October, 2018

Fortune favors the bold

"Be bold when fear paralyses the market" - seems to be the running theme now in most of the financial blogs I am reading. However, the thing is, if everyone is "boldly" exploiting the recent 20% correction in the STI, then who exactly are the "paralyzed" ones? Relying on boldness in and of itself is probably unwise anyway. It is like the wildebeests crossing crocodile infested rivers. Charging in head first is not always the best idea.  Relying on advice by so-called experts is also not optimal.  No one can predict the depth of this correction. Too conservative and you may miss the boat. Too aggressive and you may go down with the ship. Everyone touts a mythical balance, but nobody knows how to define such "balance".  In short, the answer to the question "should you invest in the stock market now?" is "your guess is as good as mine". As one of my favorite bloggers likes to say, a good strategy for me is not ne

The value of analysts

Every morning, my broker sends me a "market pulse" report, which contains a discussion of latest market developments and, additionally, a couple of BUY, SELL, or HOLD recommendations. On 7 Aug 2018, analyst Carmen Lee from OCBC had a BUY rating on DBS : Banks: You can bank on it! Despite recent volatility, the three local banks reported a relative good set of 2Q18 results.  More importantly, the guidance is still fairly positive. With more rate hikes ahead, NIM is likely to stay at current or higher levels. Based on current consensus estimates, net earnings growth is projected at 21% in FY18 and 11% in FY19 – record earnings for the banks. This underlines optimism in terms of growth expectation for both the Net Interest Income and Non-interest Income. The bumper crop of higher dividends also meant that on an annualized basis, dividend yields range from 3.5%-4.5%. With lower allowances, improving margins and healthy dividend payout ratios and yie