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Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Dividend Update Q4 2018 and End of Year Summary

The 2018 Q4 Dividend Update

SEPTEMBER

AIMSAMP - $2,024.1
(Unnamed Co) - $306.34

NOVEMBER
First REIT - $860
Starhill Global REIT -$230
Cache Log - $200.7
Lippo Malls - $490

DECEMBER 
Ascendas HTrust - $6,603.50
Frasers Log - $5646.29
AIMS AMP - $2,972

TOTAL Q4: $17,002.40


CY 2018 TOTAL DIVIDENDS:  $47,580
Q1$6,220.64
Q2$16,045.76
Q3$8,311.32
Q4$17,002.40
FY $47,580.12


This amounted to 103.11% of the target Dividend in my FUM spreadsheet. And which translates to a monthly dividend income of $4k.

CY 2019 Target Based on FUM:


Age at end year
36
37
End of Year
2018
2019 (forecast)
Starting Capital
$659,230.44
$1,105,376.57
Injected Capital
$400,000.00
$120,000.00
Yield based on starting capital only
$46,146.13
$77,376.36
Total Investible Assets (theoretical)
$1,105,376.57
$1,302,752.93
 

My AUM at the end of 2018 is 1,102,967 (missed FUM forecast).

It is not all bad news I suppose. My passive income has grew steadily Y-oY since 2015. And there is no reason why this trend should not continue:



Next year's targets would be to hit 1.3 M in assets and 77k in passive income.  Will try my best. And hopefully lady luck smiles a little more next year.

Onward to FI!


 

Portfolio Update Q4 2018

Update:
Stock
Amount held
Last price
Value
AIMSAMP Cap Reit
121,400
1.32
160,248.00
Ascendas-hTrust
235,000
0.775
182,125.00
Cache Log Trust
13,600
0.69
9,384.00
CapitaR China Tr
35,000
1.35
47,250.00
DBS
1,000
23.33
23,330.00
Ezion
19,500
0.043
838.5
First Reit
40,000
0.98
39,200.00
Frasers Com Tr
43,000
1.36
58,480.00
Frasers L&I Tr
219,700
1.02
224,094.00
Keppel Corp
5,000
5.71
28,550.00
OCBC Bank
5,000
10.97
54,850.00
Sasseur Reit
40,000
0.66
26,400.00
SingTel
42,000
2.89
121,380.00
StarhillGbl Reit
20,000
0.675
13,500.00
(unnamed)
7611
5.3
40,338
Warchest


73,000


TOTAL
S$1,102,967

The final quarter of 2018 has been a wild roller coaster ride. At the point of writing, it appears that we are now in a full throttle downward plunge.


BIGGEST LOSERS:

Singtel (unrealized) -$24,883 (-17%)
Lippo (realized) - $6,135 (-23.6%)
First REIT (unrealized) -$11,662 (23%)


WINNERS:

Frasers Logistic Trust (unrealized) +$12,053 (+5.7%)
OCBC (unrealized) +$1,422 (+2.6%)


Summary:

OCBC and DBS briefly rallied in early Dec before erasing all their gains. I am slightly in the money for OCBC and slightly out for DBS. Both have not corrected enough to warrant adding positions

AIMS AMP, Frasers Log, FCOT, Ascendas Htrust are all trading flat. Not at their all time lows, but nothing to shout about.

Singtel and Keppel managed to retreat into even more negative territory. Blue chips yay.


Cache Log and Starhill are trading near their all time lows. These are 2 REITS that analysts have consistently touted to buy for an appreciable upside.  But you know what i think of analyst reports.


First REIT (the boo boo of 2018) never recovered from that massive 25% sell-down after the credit rating of its sponsor was cut.


CRCT and Sasseur REIT continue to reflect weakness in the Chinese retail market, but with CRCT appearing to be the more resilient one of the two, which is not entirely surprising.


All in all, not a terribly good year for me. Unrealized paper losses at this time is around: -$76k (-7% of AUM).

The dividend updates will be in a separate post.

Towards FI my brethren.







Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Bought - Frasers Commercial Trust

Still reeling from the losses realised from my ill-advised venture into Lippo Malls, I have decided to re-invest the sale proceeds plus a bit more into Frasers Commercial Trust.

Reasons:

1) I believe office space rents have bottomed out and recovery is underway. And we should start seeing positive rental reversion from 2019 onwards.

2) I like the asset quality of FCOT. For instance, their Central Park property in Perth counts Rio Tinto, DLA Piper and the Australian Stock Exchange amongst its tenants.  The Caroline Chisholm Centre has the Australian Government as a tenant with a lease expiring only in 2025. There is substantial stability and income visibility.

3) The current share price already takes into account the departure of HP from Alexandra Technopark, which is now undergoing AEI.  Given management track record, I believe they would be able to increase the occupancy rates of their Singapore assets. In particular, any newly executed leases would be concluded under increasingly favorable market conditions.





Accordingly, I have initiated a small position into FCOT, 43000 shares, at $1.37 a share. Fingers crossed and onwards to FI my brethren!

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Bye bye LIPPO MALLS

Looks like luck ran out. After much agonizing, I decided to cut loss at 0.200.

It was a painful exit but I decided to cut my exposure to Lippo Karawaci's increasing likelihood of master lease default.  First REIT has also been pummeled because of LK's credit downgrade. However, I have elected to retain First REIT in light of its quality healthcare assets. 

When I bought into Lippo, I was keenly aware that it was a speculative play, not backed up by fundamentals. Greed propelled me into the purchase, optimistic about making a quick buck off a penny stock flip.



Alas, one does not outsmart Mr Market.

Lippo Malls seems to be sinking quicker than the sinkholes in China at this time. The prospect of its sponsor unloading overpriced properties onto LMIRT to meet its debt obligations is a pretty daunting one.

Whilst it is entirely possible that LK's troubles may ease up in the future, and prompt a re-rating of Lippo Malls, for a peace of mind, I would very much rather take the 6k loss (-23%), and re-invest the capital into something more worthwhile (hopefully).

While all investors know that you can't possibly win all the time, it still sucks major balls to have to swallow a major loss.



Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Fortune favors the bold


"Be bold when fear paralyses the market" - seems to be the running theme now in most of the financial blogs I am reading.

However, the thing is, if everyone is "boldly" exploiting the recent 20% correction in the STI, then who exactly are the "paralyzed" ones?


Relying on boldness in and of itself is probably unwise anyway.

It is like the wildebeests crossing crocodile infested rivers. Charging in head first is not always the best idea.  Relying on advice by so-called experts is also not optimal. 



No one can predict the depth of this correction. Too conservative and you may miss the boat. Too aggressive and you may go down with the ship. Everyone touts a mythical balance, but nobody knows how to define such "balance".  In short, the answer to the question "should you invest in the stock market now?" is "your guess is as good as mine".

As one of my favorite bloggers likes to say, a good strategy for me is not necessarily a good strategy for you. Always strive to do what you are comfortable with. Do not invest with money you need or can't afford to lose.  Always have a contingency plan.

That said, September and October saw a bit of an unhinged shopping spree on my part, motivated at least partially by an (irrational?) desire to fully deploy my war chest before the end of December.

Report card of purchases at end of Oct:


Share  No. of shares Average price Value (S$) Current Share Price P/L (%)
First REIT 20,000 1.24 24,883 1.18 -5.16%
Lippo Malls 100,000 0.26 26,087 0.235 -9.92%
OCBC 5000 10.63 53,297 10.64 -0.18%
AIMS AMP 40,400 1.34 54,318 1.35 0.41%
DBS 1000 23.43 23,509 23.28 -0.97%
Frasers Logistic Trust 30000 1.03 31,004 1.02 -1.30%

It is not that great obviously. Clearly some choices were speculative (read questionable) - Lippo Malls.  But overall, I am cautiously optimistic about FLT, AIMS, OCBC and DBS. In particular, DBS is now boasting a yield of 5%. If history is anything to go by, one should never pass up an opportunity to load up on a state-owned bank dishing out a generous 5% yield.