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Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Dead cat bounce or Rebound - Singtel

Singtel is up 1.36% to 2.98 with around 12 million shares traded at 2 PM today. There appears to be strong resistance at the 3 dollar mark.

Is this a sign that the worst is over? Or merely a dead cat bounce?

At 2.98, ST has a guaranteed yield of 5.87% over the next 2 years. ST has said that after 2020, it will stick to a payout of between 60-75% of earnings.

Singtel's EPS in 2018 was 21.71 cents per share.  This translates to a PE ratio of 13.7x at a share price of $2.98. 

Assuming there is no improvement to EPS by 2021, the expected dividend pay out would be between 13 cents to 16.3 cents. 

Even at the revised dividend rate, this translates to a yield of between 4.36% - 5.47% at a share price of $2.98, which is still a steal for a blue chip like ST, no matter how one looks at it.

Between 2012 - 2015 Singtel traded within a band of $3.09 - 4.41 per share. During these years the dividend pay out ranged from 15.8 cents to 16.8 cents - translating to yields of around 3.58% - 4.5%.

In other words, even if one takes the potentially reduced dividend into consideration, at $2.98, Singtel is yielding above its historical average. This suggests that there is bulkwark against further downside.

The key risk is whether EPS will continue to fall in 2019, due to fall in foreign associate earnings or FX risks (in particular, IDR and AUD).

On balance, i think the potential rewards outweigh the risks. And I would definitely welcome any opportunity to further add to my ST holdings.

Onward to FI!

Nothing here may be or should be construed as investment advice. Do your own due diligence.

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